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Mixed sales results, but automaker stocks rise on need for cars in Houston

DETROIT — The Big Three Detroit automakers on Friday reported better-than-expected August sales and issued optimistic outlooks for demand as residents of the Houston area replace flood-damaged cars and trucks after Hurricane Harvey, sending their stocks higher. General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler posted mixed August U.S. sales, with GM up 7.5 percent and Ford and Fiat Chrysler down. Japanese automaker Toyota improved sales by nearly 7 percent, while Honda fell 2.4 percent. Still, analysts focused on the potential for Detroit automakers to cut inventories and stabilize used vehicle prices as residents of Houston, the fourth largest city in the United States, are forced to replace tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of vehicles after the devastation from Hurricane Harvey. Mark LaNeve, Ford's U.S. sales chief, told analysts on Friday that following Hurricane Katrina in 2005 "we saw a very dramatic snapback" in demand. That said, Ford sales fell 2.1 percent in August. It sold 209,897 vehicles in the United States, compared with 214,482 a year earlier. Sales were down 1.9 percent in the Ford division and off 5.8 percent at Lincoln. Demand was down for cars, crossovers and SUVs. It was not clear how many vehicles in the Houston area will be scrapped, LaNeve said, saying he had seen estimates ranging from 200,000 to 400,000 to 1 million. Ford's Houston dealers may have lost fewer than 5,000 vehicles in inventory, he said. Ford is the No. 1 automaker in the Houston market, with 18 percent share, according to IHS Markit. The company plans to ship used vehicles to Houston dealers and has "every indication we would have to add some production" of new vehicles to meet demand, LaNeve said. Investor concerns about inventories of unsold vehicles and falling used car prices have weighed on Detroit automakers' shares most of this year. Now, automakers can anticipate a jolt of demand from a big market that is a stronghold for Detroit brand trucks and SUVs. "It's got to be a positive for the industry," LaNeve said. Investors appeared to agree. GM shares rose as much as 3.3 percent to their highest since early March. Ford increased 2.8 percent at $11.34, and Fiat Chrysler's U.S.-traded shares were up 5.2 percent $15.91, hitting their highest in more than five years. GM reported a 7.5 percent increase in U.S. auto sales in August, helped by robust sales of crossovers across its four brands.

GM might lose 90-year U.S. sales crown over chip shortage

Automotive News editor Nick Bunkley tweeted on October 1 that according to AutoNews data, General Motors "has been the largest seller of vehicles in the U.S. every year since passing Ford in 1931." With automakers having turned in light car and truck sales data for the first three quarters of 2021, GM's 90-year-run might not reach 91. According to AN figures, Toyota was 80,401 vehicles ahead when the October workday started. Worse, GM is so far behind its historic pace that it might only sell enough light vehicles in the U.S. to match its numbers from 1958.  Meanwhile, the New York Times put a few more salient numbers to the pain GM and Toyota are enduring alongside the the rest of the industry. GM sold 33% fewer cars in Q3 2021 than it did in Q3 2019 during the dark days of the pandemic, 446,997 units this year as opposed to 665,192 last year. GM's Q3 2020 was only down 13% on Q3 2019. Over at Toyota, the bottom line showed a 1% gain in Q3 2021 compared to 2020, with 566,005 units moved off dealer lots. The finer numbers show two steps forward and one step back, though; Toyota's September sales were down 22% compared to last year.  GM remains optimistic about what's ahead, GM's president of North American operations telling the NYT, "We look forward to a more stable operating environment through the fall." We'd like to see that happen, but we don't know how it happens. The chip shortage said to have been the inciting incident for the current woes isn't over, and not only can no one agree when it will be over, the automakers, chip producers, and U.S. government still can't get on the same page about who needs what and when. Looking away from that for a second shows articles about "No End In Sight" for supply chain disruptions in early September, before China had to start working through power supply constraints, global supply chain workers started warning of a "system collapse," and roughly 500,000 containers sat waiting to be unloaded at Southern California ports — a record number seemingly broken every week. And back to chips, we're told just a few days ago the chip shortage is "worse than we thought."   For now, the NYT wrote that GM dealer inventory is down 40% from June to roughly 129,000 vehicles, and down 84% from the days when dealers would cumulatively keep about 800,000 light vehicles in stock. However, GM just announced it would have almost all of its U.S. facilities back online next week, although some would run at partial capacity.

Buick Encore GX expected to come to the U.S. alongside the popular Encore

When we posted on Buick unveiling the Encore GX at Auto Shanghai 2019 as a longer-wheelbase version of the Encore, we though the GX trim could supplant our local Encore. According to Automotive News, citing "sources familiar with the plans," Buick will sell both the Encore and the Encore GX here. Brand boss Duncan Aldred told Buick dealers in January to expect a new model this year, and it appears the slightly larger subcompact crossover is that product. GM Authority reported the same news in March, the outlet saying that Buick intends to re-create in the U.S. the "model family" strategy the carmaker employs in China. Over there, our rebadged Verano sold as the first-generation Excelle, Excelle GT and Excelle GX, the GX being the wagon version of the sedan. When the Excelle trio moved a less expensive platform for the second generation, Buick introduced a Verano model in China in both sedan and Verano GS hatchback forms. AN reported that Buick is also planning a smaller three-row Enclave for China. The Encore GX differs fundamentally from both the Chinese- and U.S.-market Encores. Our Encore, a rebadged Opel/Vauxhall Mokka, rides on the Gamma II platform. The second-generation China-market Encore rides on GM's new Global Emerging Markets (GEM) platform, an updated version of the Gamma II for regions like China and Latin America. The Encore GX rides on the Vehicle Strategy Set - Front (VSS-F) architecture. AN wasn't sure yet where our U.S.-market Encore GX will be built, but doesn't expect it to come from China. The Encore GX here will slide into the lineup between the $23,200 Encore and $31,995 Envision. Whereas the Chinese model aims to stop hemorrhaging Encore sales in China, our version will want to expand the Encore success story. Since it went on sale in 2013, the model has posted double-digit sales increases here every year save for last year. In 2018 the model sold 93,073 units, accounting for 47 percent of brand sales. There's no reason to doubt the Encore GX will boost that number.