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Auto execs surveyed say VW, BMW most likely to grow

A new survey of top global automotive executives indicates both Volkswagen and BMW are the most likely to grow their market share over the next five years.
Tax advisory firm KPMG LLP has released its 14th annual Global Automotive Executive Survey, which includes responses from over 200 executives. A total of 81 percent of respondents said they expect to see Volkswagen make gains, compared to 70 percent last year. BMW, meanwhile, saw 70 percent of those surveyed say they believe the company will increase its market share. That's a jump of 7 percentage points over last year. This is the first time in the history of the survey that BMW has claimed the second-place spot.
Meanwhile, Hyundai has seen its perceived market share potential slacken for the third year in a row. Around 61 percent of those surveyed predicted gains for Hyundai, down from 63 in 2012. Toyota also has a surprising year, but for just the opposite reason. While the manufacturer had slipped in ranking since 2011, it enjoyed the largest increase of any company in the 2013 survey, jumping to 68 percent from 44 percent last year.

The UK votes for Brexit and it will impact automakers

It's the first morning after the United Kingdom voted for what's become known as Brexit – that is, to leave the European Union and its tariff-free internal market. Now begins a two-year process in which the UK will have to negotiate with the rest of the EU trading bloc, which is its largest export market, about many things. One of them may be tariffs, and that could severely impact any automaker that builds cars in the UK. This doesn't just mean companies that you think of as British, like Mini and Jaguar. Both of those automakers are owned by foreign companies, incidentally. Mini and Rolls-Royce are owned by BMW, Jaguar and Land Rover by Tata Motors of India, and Bentley by the VW Group. Many other automakers produce cars in the UK for sale within that country and also export to the EU. Tariffs could damage the profits of each of these companies, and perhaps cause them to shift manufacturing out of the UK, significantly damaging the country's resurgent manufacturing industry. Autonews Europe dug up some interesting numbers on that last point. Nissan, the country's second-largest auto producer, builds 475k or so cars in the UK but the vast majority are sent abroad. Toyota built 190k cars last year in Britain, of which 75 percent went to the EU and just 10 percent were sold in the country. Investors are skittish at the news. The value of the pound sterling has plummeted by 8 percent as of this writing, at one point yesterday reaching levels not seen since 1985. Shares at Tata Motors, which counts Jaguar and Land Rover as bright jewels in its portfolio, were off by nearly 12 percent according to Autonews Europe. So what happens next? No one's terribly sure, although the feeling seems to be that the jilted EU will impost tariffs of up to 10 percent on UK exports. It's likely that the UK will reciprocate, and thus it'll be more expensive to buy a European-made car in the UK. Both situations will likely negatively affect the country, as both production of new cars and sales to UK consumers will both fall. Evercore Automotive Research figures the combined damage will be roughly $9b in lost profits to automakers, and an as-of-yet unquantified impact on auto production jobs. Perhaps the EU's leaders in Brussels will be in a better mood in two years, and the process won't devolve into a trade war. In the immediate wake of the Brexit vote, though, the mood is grim, the EU leadership is angry, and investors are spooked.

China’s Great Wall looking to partner with BMW to sell cars in the West

The Chinese automaker Great Wall seems to have moved on from courting Fiat Chrysler. According to Reuters, the company announced in a stock exchange filing that it's looking to collaborate with BMW's Mini brand in some way. Reuters also reports that BMW is open to discussion. We reached out to a BMW representative, and he provided us with an official statement regarding the news. The company didn't specifically say it is talking with Great Wall. What it did say is that it has had success with its current partnership with another Chinese automaker Brilliance, but also that the company is interested in expanding the Mini brand worldwide and in China. The statement says that Mini's future strategy and expansion will include "diversification of partnerships and new cooperation models." It also said that expanding in China "is only possible with a local partner." That sounds to us like BMW is pretty interested in working with Great Wall. This move comes about a month and a half after Great Wall attempted to purchase parts of Fiat Chrysler. The company was reported to be talking to FCA to purchase the Jeep brand, and it later confirmed that it was interested in that brand, a few, or the whole company. But things seemed to fall apart when Fiat Chrysler's CEO Sergio Marchionne announced it hadn't received any offers and wasn't working on any kind of deal with another company. Now it may seem a little odd that Great Wall would shift from trying to buy an SUV brand, or a company that is beginning to concentrate on crossovers and trucks, to one that specializes in compact cars. After all, they're fairly different segments. Our theory is that Great Wall isn't necessarily interested in the specific products, but more that it's looking for a gateway to Western car markets. It's not something new for the company. As far back as 2013, the company made it clear it was looking to start selling cars in America. It also started looking into a manufacturing facility in Mexico earlier this year, which would supposedly supply vehicles to both Mexico and the U.S. Now when Great Wall announced its American sales intentions, it was targeting a date of 2015. That obviously didn't happen, and it probably has something to do with the company's products. Most of the cars under the Great Wall and Haval brands bear an uncanny appearance to discontinued models from other companies that compete in the West.