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Average new-vehicle transaction price hits a whopping new peak in December

Elevated prices for products and higher borrowing rates led to record high transaction prices for new vehicles in December, with the average cost in the U.S. rising to a record $49,507, according to data from Kelley Blue Book released today. The report notes that ATPs — average transaction prices — have climbed above suggested retail prices — MSRPs — for more than a year. Sales volumes were up in December on a year-over-year basis by more than 5%, a situation Kelley attributed to improved supply. Overall sales for 2022, however, were off 8% year over year. “The transaction data from December clearly indicates overall prices showed no signs of coming down as we headed into year-end,” said Rebecca Rydzewski, research manager of economic and industry insights for Cox Automotive. “Luxury prices fell slightly in December, but non-luxury transaction prices were up. Truck sales were particularly strong last month, and with many trucks selling for more than $60,000, a new record was all but inevitable.” Industry analysts claim the most obvious headwinds in the new car market are generated by higher interest rates, forced by the Federal Reserve's rate hikes intended to tame inflation, and by generally limited inventory. A recent report from J.D. Power showed that the average monthly payment for a new vehicle loan in December was $718, up $47 from a year ago. But 16% of consumers in December took out loans with monthly payments of over $1,000. Consumers think vehicles, and electric vehicles especially, are way too expensive. Fortunately, manufacturersÂ’ incentives, all but extinct in the past two years, are returning, especially in the electric-vehicle and luxury market, the Kelley data suggest. Plus, "With the new tax credits on the way, electric vehicle ATPs will drop lower for qualifying vehicles,” Rydzewski said. Non-luxury brands, such as Honda and Kia, showed particularly strong performance in December, with the average price paid at $45,578 — a record high and an increase of $994 month over month. Meanwhile, the average luxury buyer paid $66,660 for a new vehicle last month. Mercedes-Benz and Land Rover showed the most price strength in the luxury market, transacting between 2.6% to 6.5% over sticker price. But luxury brands Audi, BMW, Infiniti, Lexus, Lincoln, and Volvo showed the least price strength with some discounting in effect, selling 1% or more below MSRP in December, according to the survey.

Despite premium carmakers going downmarket, luxury auto sales stick at 10-11%

According to research conducted by global information company IHS Automotive, the leporine birthing of new models by luxury manufacturers over the past six years hasn't increased their market share in the US. Even as car sales reached 15.6 million units, IHS says what's happened instead is that luxury buyers are merely moving from one brand to another, moving from larger luxury vehicles into hot segments like compact luxury crossovers or leaving the market at the same rate as other buyers enter.
Whether broken out by makes or by segment, market share has rollercoastered inside a narrow band from 10.5 to 11.5 percent since "at least" 2008. Closer investigation reveals the shifting boundaries in the aspirational pond, with brands like Mercedes-Benz and Audi gaining territory as Lexus and Lincoln lost it, and Saab and Hummer were buried, dead, under it. One neat note is that Tesla has gone from a share of zip to .12 percent.
The subcompact and compact crossover segments show growth, with those little high-riders jumping from .3 percent to 1.16 percent of overall industry sales. Their rise, though, is concomitant with the decline of four other segments: compact and midsize cars and fullsize cars and SUVs. We think the next few years that will tell if the small-car expansion can overcome the large-car retraction, with a phalanx of smaller offerings like the CLA only recently hitting the market and others like the GLA, Macan and Q1 doing so in the near future.

The mood at this year’s Paris Motor Show: Quiet

The Paris Motor Show, held every other year in the early fall, typically kicks off the annual cavalcade of automotive conclaves, one that traverses the globe between autumn and spring, introducing projective, conceptual and production-ready vehicle models to the international automotive press, automotive aficionados and a public hungry for news of our increasingly futuristic mobility enterprise. But this year, at the press preview days for the show, the grounds of the Porte de Versailles convention center felt a bit more sparsely populated than usual. This was not simply a subjective sensation, or one influenced by the center's atypically dispersed assemblage of seven discrete buildings, which tends to spread out the cars and the crowds. There were not only fewer new vehicles being premiered in Paris this year, there were fewer manufacturers there to display them. Major mainstream European OEM stalwarts such as Alfa Romeo, Fiat, Nissan and Volkswagen chose to sit out Paris this year, as did boutique manufacturers like Bentley, Aston Martin and Lamborghini. This is not simply based in some antipathy on the part of the German, British and Italian manufacturers toward the French market — though for a variety of historical and societal reasons that market may be more dominated by vehicles produced domestically than others. Rather, it is part of a larger trend in the industry. Last year, Mercedes-Benz announced that it would not be participating in the flagship North American International Auto Show in 2019 — and that it might not return. Other brands including Jaguar/Land Rover, Audi, Porsche, Mazda and nearly every exotic carmaker have also departed the Detroit show. Some of these brands will still appear in the city in which the show is taking place, and host an event offsite, to capitalize on the presence of a large number of reporters in attendance. And even brands that do have a presence at the show have shifted their vehicle introductions to the days before the official press opening in an attempt to stand out from the crowd. In many ways, this makes sense. With an expanding number of automakers, with diversification and niche-ification of models and with wholesale shifts that necessitate the introduction of EV or autonomous sub-brands, there is a growing sense that, with everyone shouting at the same time, no one can be heard.